Bitcoin (BTC) to hit $150,000 after halving
Bitcoin is set for more price gains later this year, even after a recent retreat in prices, according to Standard Chartered’s top crypto analyst. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of foreign exchange research, West, and digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said in a research note this week that he sees bitcoin rising to $150,000 per coin, and ether hitting $8,000 by the end of 2024 — doubling down on a bullish prediction from the bank earlier this year. “We think the bad news is already priced in for BTC and ETH, and that positive structural drivers will take over again as negative drivers fade,” Kendrick said in the April 22 note. “In addition, market positioning is now much cleaner than it was; USD 261mn of leveraged long positions were removed from BTC futures alone on 13 April – the largest daily liquidation since at least October 2023 – in response to Iran’s attack on Israel that day.” Kendrick was referring to the liquidation of speculative bitcoin trades that were augmented by investors using borrowed cash to make bigger bets on the future swings in the price of the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin temporarily sank below $60,000 last week as traders reacted to news of an escalating military conflict between Iran and Israel. While the cryptocurrency’s proponents believe bitcoin to be a hedge against periods of economic and geopolitical instability, bitcoin has behaved more like traditional risk assets, like equities, in recent years, as more institutional investors have piled money into the asset. In fact, bitcoin’s trading has shown it can often react to bad news more quickly than equity traders as the crypto market runs 24/7, while stocks and other conventional markets trade only during weekdays. Still, despite bitcoin’s losses in the wake of Iran’s recent attack on Israel, Kendrick believes the cryptocurrency has potential to move higher in the coming months and hit a fresh record high well above the $73,797.68 price it hit on March 14. Kendrick said that the supply shock from bitcoin’s halving — which limits the supply of new bitcoin issuance to 3.125 bitcoins, or about $208,360.31 as of Wednesday, down from 6.25 bitcoins — as well as the arrival of new bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which are sucking up billions’ of dollars worth of the cryptocurrency from exchanges, would support prices toward the end of 2024. That’s even as the token contends with a litany of other bad news, including a stalling of new bitcoin ETF inflows in the United States; dampening expectations for approval of an ether spot ETF in the U.S.; a Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit against decentralized exchange Uniswap; higher U.S. Treasury yields; and escalating tensions in the Middle East. “Yes BTC ETF inflows in the US have stalled, but now we are passed the halving only half as much inflow is needed to cover net new supply, and the global ETF backdrop (UK, HK) is improving. Also, large long liquidations over the past couple of weeks mean that market positioning is a lot cleaner,” Kendrick said. “As a result, with Middle East tensions easing I think it is time to re-engage in medium-term longs.”
